Donald Trump Flips Three Swing States in His Favor

Former President Donald Trump has taken the lead in three swing states, according to new polling.
Decision Desk HQ’s forecast shows Trump is now ahead in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina—three swing states that are crucial to secure victory in the presidential election. Vice President Kamala Harris had been leading in two of the states a month ago.
In Arizona, Trump is leading Harris by 0.8 points, on 48.5 percent to Harris’s 47.7 percent. On September 2, Harris had been ahead by 0.1 points in the state, on 48 percent to Trump’s 47.9 percent.
In Georgia, Trump is ahead of Harris by 0.2 points, on 48.1 points to Harris’ 47.9 points, with Trump having wiped out his opponent’s previous lead of 0.4 points.
In North Carolina, Trump has gained the lead with 48.5 points, while Harris stands at 48 percent, reversing a previous tie between the candidates.
The forecast shows that while Harris has the lead in four of the swing states—Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania—her lead has decreased in 3 of those states, while Trump’s share of the vote has grown.
For example, on September 2, Harris was leading Trump by 0.7 points in Pennsylvania, on 48.2 percent to Trump’s 47.5 percent. However, her lead now stands at 0.6 points, with 48.9 percent of the vote to Trump’s 48.3 percent.
Harris has seen bigger declines in Wisconsin, where she is 1.7 points ahead of Trump, and Michigan, where she is 0.6 points ahead. In both states, her lead has decreased by 1.7 and 1 point respectively since September.
In Nevada, which is the only swing state to be rated by the forecaster as “leans Democrat,” the polls look more positive for Harris, with the vice president’s lead having grown by 1.6 points since September when her share of the vote stood at 48.3 percent to Trump’s 47.7 percent.
She is now 2.2 points ahead of Trump, on 49.1 percent to her opponent’s 46.9 percent.
Newsweek has contacted the Harris and Trump campaigns via email for comment.
Decision Desk HQ’s forecast reflects recent polling which has shown Trump taking the lead in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, while Harris has maintained her lead in the four other battleground states.
FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker shows Trump is leading Harris by one point in Arizona and Georgia, while Harris leads by between one and two points in Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. The two candidates are tied in North Carolina, the state with the closest race nationwide.
Pollster Nate Silver’s model also shows that Trump is ahead by between 0.8 and 1.3 points in Arizona and Georgia, while Harris leads by between one and two points in Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Trump leads Harris in North Carolina by 0.3 points.
Both pollsters show that Harris’s lead has decreased in every swing state since September 2 other than Nevada, where her lead has grown from 0.4 points to 1.4 points, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Nonetheless, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast shows that Harris is projected to win in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada, which would be enough to secure her a victory, while Trump leads in North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona.
However, the polls remain close in the swing states, meaning the election is still anybody’s to win.
“Slim margins in the swing states make this cycle’s presidential race the closest in decades—the outcome could be closer than in any election in nearly 150 years,” FiveThirtyEight wrote on its website.